The Opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) will be heading to the poll on May 13, 2023, for their internal flagbearership and parliamentary primaries.
Apexnewsgh.com, as part of our usual public view seeking ahead of party elections in the Upper East region, has conducted extensive views and opinions from the people of Chiana/Paga regarding the National Democratic Party internal primaries in the area.
Politics in Chana/Paga is so sectional base. The Constituency is comprised of three tribal zones. They are as follows: the North zone which is the Kassena-speaking zone. Mostly, when you look at the history of the constituency, they vote based on tribal lines or if you like sectional basis. If it happens that one zone is able to present one candidate, there is a high possibility the candidate is likely to win, but depending on how good the candidate is, he or she is likely to tap votes from East, North, and West.
The incumbent MP Mr. Dalu Adda Thomas is coming from the West. Francis Abirigo is from the East and they are having 45 polling stations, the incumbent Mr. Dalu Adda is from the West and they are having 44 polling stations, Mr. Alamzy Billa and Lawyer Raphael Alijina are coming from the North and they are having 40 polling stations. And one thing which is seen as a disadvantage to the North is that 40 polling stations which happens to be the least number of polling stations, two candidates are contesting and both of the contestants are strong candidates.
In Paga-Chiana, sectional politics cannot be taken for granted. People will prefer to vote for the person coming from their various zones.
Remember, I said Mr. Dalu, is the incumbent MP who is coming alone from the West, and as an incumbent MP, he will certainly have one problem or the other. Because he won’t be able to satisfy all the people in his constituency as an MP. That’s the only challenge the MP will be having in this contest. If not for that, he would have been able to win the primaries easily because his zone is having 44 polling stations. So, when he is able to get 3 or 4 polling stations from North and East he is good to go.
Meanwhile, another thing that is giving the MP an upper hand ahead of others, is the paramount chief of the West, which is Chana. He is throwing his strongest support to the MP because they are coming together from the same zone. So, despite the fact that the MP might be having few challenges from the West, the paramount chief is showing interest in the contest.
For that reason, they are to corner all the delegates from the West zone in one direction to be able to give the MP the advantage of the 44 polling stations. With these factors, the MP is in a good position as far as the contest is concerned. Several others are supporting the incumbent because of where he is coming from.
When you come to the North, Alamzy Billa, is the old face in the contest, he is someone the delegates already have contact with per what we gathered. He has been with delegates for some time. In the last contest, the incumbent MP and Alamzy were the two front liners and Alamzy only lost the election by only 12 votes and then, they were 6 in the contest and currently, they are 4 in the battling the race.
Alamzy is equally coming from the North but because of Lawyer Raphael, his chances of winning is not that clear for him.
Had it not been the incumbency phatic, people from the West will like to give Alamzy a sympathy vote. But from the way things are going in the West, things might work out for the MP, especially with the help of the chief.
Per what we gathered, another factor affecting Alamzy is that, people are considering him a non-indigene of the north because the grandfather and the father originated from Burkina Faso to settle at Paga and the Lawyer is a son of the soil, he is from the same place with the former MP Abuga Pele. So, you could see clearly see that even in the North, people are trying to play tribal politics.
When you go to the East, where Francis Abirigo is coming from, he would have had the best opportunity because he is having the highest polling stations and he is also the only contestant from the East. But his problem currently is that people are seeing him to have come late into the contest because he didn’t show interest early. Despite the fact that he is the only person from the East, people are not seeing him as worth the seat.
When you also go to the East, they equally have some tribal conflict centuries ago where we have the Nabango, Mirigu, Sirigu, and Kandiga. They equally have their sectional problems. So, Abirigo trying to take advantage of that area is equally becoming difficult for him. He cannot control all those 44 polling stations. So, that means when the incumbent does his homework well, he will be able to penetrate the East, when Alamzy does his homework he can penetrate the East, when lawyer Rapheal does his homework very well, he can equally penetrate the East.
Our Prediction
The East is the determinant of who wins the Chaina/Page NDC constituency primaries on May 13.
The race is between Alamzy and the incumbent MP Mr. Dalu. That is not to say Lawyer Raphael isn’t a strong candidate, he is but we saw Alamzy as stronger.
Our observation shows Alamzy would have done better if, he is the only candidate contesting from the North.
Mr. Dalu with the power of incumbency coupled with assistance coming from the Chief will emerge victorious on May 13.
However, the vote-winning margin will be little.
For the Flagbearership, John Dramani Mahama will get over 78 percent ahead of his other contenders Dr. Kwabena Duffour, a former Minister of Finance and Mr. Kojo Bonsu, a former Mayor of Kumasi will share the rest of the votes.
Apexnewsgh.com is noted for its accurate predictions of local elections so far within the Upper East region.
Please, these are views collated, the views expressed here were not our decision we engage those who matter.
Our good wish goes to all the candidates.
Source: Apexnewsgh.com/Ghana
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