Ghana’s Growth to Slow in 2026, But Stability Holds Firm — World Bank
Ghana’s economy is set to cool slightly this year, with the World Bank forecasting GDP growth of 4.8 percent in 2026, down from an estimated 6.0 percent in 2025. The dip signals a moderation in momentum following a strong post-pandemic rebound, but it is not a cause for alarm, stability, rather than rapid expansion, is now the defining theme of Ghana’s economic trajectory. According to the Bank’s latest Africa Economic Update, the slowdown is driven by tightening domestic conditions and mounting external pressures, even as the country’s broader macroeconomic fundamentals continue to improve. Inflation on the Way Down One of the brighter spots in the outlook is inflation. The World Bank projects Ghana’s end-of-year inflation rate for 2026 at around 9 percent, firmly consolidating the country’s position in single-digit territory. This continued disinflation is expected to be underpinned by improved currency stability, tight monetary policy, and easing external pressures, a combination that should provide meaningful relief to households and businesses alike. A Mixed Picture for Business For the private sector, the outlook cuts both ways. On one hand, weaker domestic demand, cautious investment sentiment, and global economic uncertainty could constrain expansion across key sectors. On the other, easing inflation holds the potential to boost consumer purchasing power and reduce operational costs for firms — offering a silver lining amid the broader slowdown. The World Bank, however, sounded a note of caution: Ghana remains exposed to global shocks, including commodity price volatility, uncertain financial conditions, and geopolitical risks affecting trade and energy markets. Left unmanaged, these risks could erode both growth and inflation gains. Ghana in a Regional Context Ghana’s moderation mirrors broader trends across the continent. Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth is projected at 4.1 percent in 2026, unchanged from 2025, though the World Bank warns that downside risks are mounting. The region’s recovery from successive global shocks is losing steam, with growth projections revised downward by 0.3 percentage points from the October 2025 forecast. Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, heavy debt-service burdens, and deep structural challenges are all weighing on growth and job creation across the region. The report further highlights that escalating conflicts, including attacks on energy facilities and disruptions to global shipping routes, have intensified these risks considerably. Steady, Not Spectacular Despite the projected slowdown, Ghana’s medium-term outlook remains relatively stable, with growth expected to hover around 5 percent in subsequent years and recover gradually over time. The World Bank’s data paints a picture of a country entering a phase of measured recovery, one where consolidating gains and building resilience takes precedence over chasing rapid expansion. For Ghana, the road ahead may be steadier than it is swift, but the direction remains firmly forward. Source: Apexnewsgh.com
AfCFTA Could Lift 40 Million Out of Poverty by 2035 — But Key Barriers Remain, Says World Bank
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) holds the promise of raising real incomes across the continent by 7–9% and pulling 40 million people out of extreme poverty by 2035, but that promise remains largely unfulfilled, the World Bank has warned. Launched in January 2021, the AfCFTA is a landmark trade agreement among African Union member states designed to create a single continental market for goods and services. Despite its ambitious vision, the World Bank’s April 2026 Africa Economic Update paints a sobering picture: the agreement’s transformative impact has yet to materialise. According to the report, unlocking the full potential of the AfCFTA will not happen on its own. It will require frontrunner countries to take the lead on implementation, backed by robust monitoring, strict enforcement of commitments, and targeted investment in regional public goods. The World Bank was candid about where the real obstacles lie. “While tariff reductions under the AfCFTA will help intraregional trade, the most significant constraints stem from internal trade costs,” the report noted. These internal costs include inadequate transport and logistics infrastructure, inefficient customs and regulatory systems, limited digitalisation, and high domestic finance and logistics expenses, structural challenges that tariff cuts alone cannot resolve. Adding to these hurdles, non-tariff barriers such as selective export bans remain widespread across the region, further dampening the flow of trade between African nations. Looking ahead, the World Bank urged that Phase II of the agreement prioritise investment, intellectual property, competition policy, and the meaningful inclusion of women and youth in trade, areas seen as critical to tackling the deep-rooted internal cost barriers. Even so, the Bank struck a note of caution, warning that implementation is likely to be gradual given the substantial investment requirements and the need for far-reaching institutional and regulatory reforms. The message from the World Bank is clear: the AfCFTA’s potential is real and significant, but turning that potential into tangible gains for African people will demand sustained political will, coordinated action, and long-term investment across the continent. Source: Apexnewsgh.com
OSP Raids Five Fuel Depots in Sweeping Probe into Ghana’s Petroleum Sector Corruption
Ghana’s Office of the Special Prosecutor (OSP) has launched a sweeping crackdown on alleged corruption in the country’s petroleum downstream sector, conducting coordinated searches at five major fuel depots and seizing a trove of documents and electronic materials in the process. The operation, part of an ongoing investigation, targeted evidence linked to the suspected under-declaration of petroleum imports and the falsification of product types, practices that industry observers say carry significant financial consequences for the Ghanaian state. According to findings referenced in the OSP’s second half-year report, the probe has already implicated one Bulk Oil Distribution Company and 16 Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) in the diversion of condensate and marine gasoil. So far, approximately GHS8.5 million has been recovered in connection with these activities. But the figures may only scratch the surface. Estimates suggest that Ghana could be losing as much as GHS2 billion annually through tax-related leakages in the petroleum downstream sector alone. Adding to the concern, around GHS680 million spent each year on premix fuel subsidies may not be reaching the intended beneficiaries, raising fresh questions about accountability across the supply chain. The OSP’s investigation points to a broader and more troubling pattern of alleged infractions, including tax evasion and the deliberate manipulation of product classifications during depot transfers. Preliminary findings go further still, suggesting the possibility of coordinated actions involving certain industry players and officials embedded within key regulatory and state institutions, among them the National Petroleum Authority (NPA), the Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA), and the National Security Secretariat. These alleged collaborations are said to have facilitated widespread misreporting and illicit financial flows over time. The revelations have drawn sharp reactions from civil society. The Centre for Environmental Management and Sustainable Energy (CEMSE) described the findings as deeply concerning and indicative of systemic challenges that have long plagued the sector. Its Executive Director, Benjamin Nsiah, announced that CEMSE, in partnership with the Institute of Energy Policy and Research, is preparing to launch a public accountability campaign in the coming weeks, a move aimed at sustaining pressure for transparency and reform. The OSP has confirmed that investigations remain ongoing, with further actions to be determined by the outcome of the probe. For many Ghanaians, the unfolding case is a test of whether the country’s anti-corruption institutions can deliver meaningful accountability in one of its most strategically important sectors. Source: Apexnewsgh.com
Ghana’s Crude Oil Output Hits Six-Year Low as PIAC Calls for Urgent Investment
Ghana’s crude oil production has declined for the sixth consecutive year, sliding from a peak of 71.4 million barrels to just 37.3 million barrels in 2025, a compounded annual average decline of 9%, according to the 2025 Annual Report by the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC). The alarming figures were presented on Wednesday, April 8, when PIAC Chairman Richard Ellimah stepped before the public to highlight the growing crisis gripping the country’s petroleum sector. With each passing year, Ghana’s oil output has continued its downward spiral, raising serious concerns about the nation’s long-term energy revenue and economic stability. “In 2025, crude oil production declined for the sixth consecutive year, falling from a high of 71.4 million barrels to 37.3 million barrels. This represents a compounded annual average decline of 9%, which should be a concern for every Ghanaian,” Ellimah warned. The PIAC Chairman did not stop at sounding the alarm; he came up with recommendations. He urged the government to strengthen its collaboration with the Petroleum Commission to attract fresh investment into the sector and help reverse the troubling downward trend. Central to his recommendations was a call for developing a dedicated framework to boost investment in existing producing fields, with particular attention to the Tweneboa, Enyenra, and Ntomme (TEN) field, where output has consistently underperformed expectations. Beyond reviving existing fields, Ellimah also pressed the government to take proactive steps to court additional investors into Ghana’s oil sector, a move he believes is critical to stabilising and ultimately growing production levels. As Ghana grapples with dwindling oil revenues, the message from PIAC is clear: without decisive action and meaningful investment, the country risks watching its petroleum fortunes continue to erode. Source: Apexnewsgh.com
Ghana’s Economy Grows 7.5% in January 2026, Services Sector Leads Charge
Ghana’s economy kicked off 2026 on a positive note, expanding by 7.5% in January, according to the Ghana Statistical Service. While the figure signals sustained growth momentum at the start of the year, it represents a slight moderation compared to the 8.2% recorded in the same period in 2025. The latest Monthly Indicator of Economic Growth (MIEG) data reveals that the services sector was the clear engine of activity, posting a robust 9.6% growth and contributing 54.3% of total economic expansion. Industry followed with a 7.2% growth, accounting for 29.0% of total growth, while agriculture recorded the slowest performance at 4.5%, contributing 14.0%. Government Statistician Dr. Alhassan Iddrisu noted that the strong showing from services reflects its increasingly dominant role in the economy, reinforcing the view that Ghana’s growth trajectory is tilting firmly toward a service-led model. However, the data also exposes an uneven growth pattern that warrants attention. The relatively sluggish pace in agriculture raises concerns about productivity in a sector that remains a lifeline for jobs and food security. Meanwhile, industry’s performance, though solid, suggests untapped potential for deeper value addition and greater output. As Ghana navigates the rest of 2026, economists and policymakers agree that sustaining the current momentum will require a more balanced approach, one that strengthens industrial capacity, revitalizes agricultural productivity, and harnesses the continued dynamism of the services sector to build broader and more resilient economic growth. Source: Apexnewsgh.com
Stability Came at a Price — BoG Governor Asiama Opens Up on the True Cost of Ghana’s Economic Recovery
Ghana’s improved economic performance in 2025 did not come for free. That was the candid message from the Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Dr. Johnson Pandit Asiama, who used his appearance at the Kwahu Business Forum 2026 to pull back the curtain on the significant financial burden the central bank bore to deliver the macroeconomic stability that businesses and households have come to enjoy. Speaking at the Governor’s Roundtable session, which served as the closing highlight of the four-day forum, Dr. Asiama painted a picture of an institution that had to make costly, difficult decisions in order to steer Ghana’s economy back from the brink of high inflation and currency instability. “The Cedi is stable and under control,” he told the gathering. But behind that stability, he explained, lay a resource-intensive effort that stretched the central bank’s operations considerably. “Last year was good but expensive for the central bank. It took us a lot of money to mop up excess liquidity and bring inflation down to 5.4% by December 2025,” he said. The Governor was equally frank about the nature of central banking itself, describing it as a discipline defined by difficult choices. “The work we do is always about trade-offs… trying to strike the right balance,” he noted, a remark that resonated with business owners in the audience who understand all too well the tension between cost management and growth. At the heart of those trade-offs is the perennial challenge of controlling inflation without stifling credit and economic activity. To bring inflation down, central banks drain excess liquidity from the financial system — but doing so comes at a price. The higher the volume of liquidity to be absorbed, the greater the cost to the central bank’s balance sheet. In Ghana’s case, that cost was particularly steep in 2025, when inflation was slashed from 23.8% at the close of 2024 to 5.4% by December 2025, a reduction of 18.4 percentage points in a single year. Such an aggressive disinflation required equally aggressive monetary operations, and the Governor made no attempt to downplay the toll it took. Yet, looking ahead, Dr. Asiama offered a more optimistic outlook. With inflation now subdued and the monetary environment more stable, he suggested that the scale of intervention required going forward would be considerably smaller. “If you look at where inflation was at the end of December 2024 and where it is now, it wouldn’t involve the same level of resources to keep it low and stable going forward,” he said. That is welcome news not just for the central bank’s balance sheet, but for the broader economy. A less burdened central bank, operating in a low-inflation environment, is better positioned to support the kind of credit expansion that businesses need to grow. Dr. Asiama underscored this connection directly: “When banks are strong, they can give more credit.” The Governor’s Roundtable brought the 2026 Kwahu Business Forum to a close. The event, which ran from April 3, drew an impressive gathering of business owners, industrialists, investors, policymakers, and development partners, all convened to deliberate on policies capable of stimulating business growth. Among those in attendance were Chief of Staff to the President, Julius Debrah; Eastern Regional Minister, Rita Akosua Adjei Awatey; Economic Advisor to the President, Seth Terkper; and Legal Counsel to the President, Marietta Agyeiwaa Brew. With the forum concluded, the conversations it sparked, about the cost of stability, the future of credit, and the path to sustainable growth, are ones Ghana’s business community will be watching closely as the year unfolds. Source: Apexnewsgh.com
Sachet Water Price Hike Suspended — Government Steps In to Protect Consumers
Ghanaians can breathe a sigh of relief, at least for now. The price of sachet water will remain unchanged after a planned increase, which was set to take effect on Monday, April 6, was suspended. The Ministry of Trade, Agribusiness and Industry made the announcement, signalling a timely intervention ahead of what would have been an unwelcome burden on households already navigating economic pressures. In a press statement, the ministry, led by Minister Elizabeth Ofosu-Adjare, commended the Ghana Plastic Manufacturers Association (GPMA) and the National Association of Sachet and Packaged Water Producers for pulling back on the proposed price adjustment. The ministry described the decision as a demonstration of commitment to consumer protection and market stability, assuring the public that no increase has taken effect and that sachet water remains available at its current price. The suspension, however, is only part of the story. Behind the scenes, producers and manufacturers have been grappling with rising production costs, a challenge the government acknowledges cannot be ignored indefinitely. To address this, a meeting has been scheduled for Wednesday, bringing together manufacturers and producers to discuss the factors driving the proposed increase, with production costs expected to take centre stage in the conversation. A key concern raised is Ghana’s heavy reliance on imported raw materials, particularly polymers, the primary ingredient used in sachet production. It is this dependence on imports that has made producers vulnerable to external cost pressures, and it is a vulnerability the government is now actively seeking to address. “As a ministry, we are very concerned about feeding the industry with available raw materials. In fact, that has been our mandate since the government took over,” said Mr. Addo, speaking on behalf of the ministry. “So what we are doing right now is speaking to other stakeholders in the value chain to see if we can have locally available polymers, which are the main ingredients in sachet production,” he added. The push to source raw materials locally is being framed not merely as a cost-saving measure, but as a longer-term strategy to stabilise sachet water prices and insulate the industry from the volatility of global commodity markets. For now, consumers can continue to purchase their daily sachet water without digging deeper into their pockets. But the Wednesday meeting will be a critical test of whether government, manufacturers, and producers can find common ground on a sustainable path forward, one that keeps sachet water affordable without leaving producers unable to cover their costs. Source: Apexnewsgh.com
BoG Governor Asiama Speaks on Ghana’s Economic Progress at Kwahu Business Forum
The Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Dr. Johnson Pandit Asiama, on Sunday, April 5, participated in the Kwahu Business Forum Governor’s Roundtable session, where he engaged the business community on Ghana’s economic development and the policy decisions shaping the country’s financial landscape. Governor Asiama used the platform to reflect on Ghana’s economic performance in 2025, acknowledging the significant strides made while also shedding light on the difficult policy trade-offs that central banks face globally. On the subject of inflation, a matter of keen interest to the business community, Dr. Asiama was candid about the price paid to achieve the current low inflation environment. “Last year was good but expensive for the central bank. It took us a lot of money to mop up excess liquidity and bring inflation down to 5.4% by December 2025,” he stated. He also pointed to the stable exchange rate as one of several strong macroeconomic indicators, asserting confidently, “The Cedi is stable and under control.” Elaborating on the nature of central banking, he noted, “The work we do is always about trade-offs… trying to strike the right balance.” Ghana’s inflation story in 2025 is a remarkable one. The rate dropped from 23.8% at end-December 2024 to 5.4% by end-December 2025, a reduction of 18.4 percentage points within a single year. Achieving such a dramatic decline, however, came at a considerable financial cost to the central bank. Central banks, by mandate, are tasked with maintaining economic stability, primarily by keeping inflation low and stable. To do this, they employ monetary policy tools, including Open Market Operations (OMO), which involve draining excess liquidity from the economy. In Ghana’s case, the Bank of Ghana issues BoG Bills purchased by commercial banks. The cost of issuing these bills is heavily influenced by the prevailing policy rate, making large-scale liquidity mop-up exercises particularly expensive. At the last Monetary Policy Committee press briefing, Governor Asiama disclosed that the cost of the Bank’s Open Market Operations rose significantly in 2025 as a result of the aggressive liquidity mop-up exercise. This is a challenge not unique to Ghana, other major monetary authorities, including the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, face similar pressures when deploying tools to rein in inflation. The rationale for bearing such costs, however, is clear. Inflation, left unchecked, erodes the real incomes of citizens. Even when nominal wages remain unchanged, every uptick in inflation reduces the purchasing power of households. Central banks, therefore, cannot afford to be passive bystanders. Despite the heavy cost incurred in 2025, Governor Asiama expressed confidence that the year ahead would tell a different story. “If you look at where inflation was at the end of December 2024 and where it is now, it wouldn’t involve the same level of resources to keep it low and stable going forward,” he said. The logic is straightforward. With current inflation already below 4%, the scale of intervention required to maintain price stability in 2026 is far less demanding than the monumental effort needed to slash inflation by 18.4 percentage points in 2025. The Bank of Ghana’s monetary operations going forward are therefore expected to be less costly, easing pressure on the central bank’s balance sheet. Beyond inflation and monetary policy costs, Governor Asiama underscored the importance of collaboration between the central bank and the broader financial sector. He assured the business community that the Bank of Ghana remains committed to strengthening financial markets and the banking sector. “When banks are strong, they can give more credit,” he noted, a statement that speaks directly to the aspirations of businesses seeking access to financing for growth and expansion. Governor Asiama’s appearance at the Kwahu Business Forum offered a rare and frank window into the inner workings of central banking in Ghana. His remarks painted a picture of an institution that has made difficult, costly decisions in the interest of macroeconomic stability, and one that is now positioned to consolidate those gains at a lower cost. With inflation subdued, the Cedi stable, and a more favourable monetary environment taking shape, 2026 appears to hold genuine promise for Ghana’s economy and its business community. Source: Apexnewsgh.com
The Untold Story of Tema Oil Refinery’s Remarkable Turnaround
Not long ago, Ghana’s Tema Oil Refinery (TOR) was a shadow of its former self, debt-ridden, operationally crippled, and hemorrhaging talent. Today, its furnaces are burning again. But the man who helped turn the tide says the journey back from the brink was anything but straightforward. Edmond Kombat, Managing Director of TOR, offered a candid and at times sobering account of the refinery’s recent history during an engagement with fellows of the African Extractive Media Fellowship (AEMF), describing the state of the institution before its revival as “depressing” and nearly beyond recovery. Kombat traced the refinery’s descent from a relatively stable footing in 2016 to what he characterised as a near-collapse by 2024. At the heart of the crisis was a debt burden that had once been brought under control, reduced from $650 million to approximately $300 million before 2017, only to balloon again to around $517 million in the years that followed. The financial deterioration was accompanied by operational shutdowns, poor maintenance, and mounting liabilities across the board. The scale of the financial obligations was staggering. TOR had accumulated significant debts to the Ghana Revenue Authority, the Electricity Company of Ghana (ECG), Ghana Water, and various staff-related funds. Years of unaudited accounts and massive cumulative losses compounded the institutional rot. On the ground, the physical infrastructure told an equally grim story: 17 storage tanks were out of service, and key processing plants sat idle. Beyond the balance sheet, Kombat painted a picture of an institution hollowed out from within. Internal divisions, low staff morale, and a high attrition rate saw skilled workers depart for opportunities in the Middle East and at larger facilities such as the Dangote Refinery. “The place was so depressing that it almost looked like there was no way out,” he admitted. Rather than waiting for a government bailout, management took a different approach upon assuming leadership, one focused on internal reform and rebuilding trust from the ground up. Central to this effort was addressing the human resource grievances that had long festered within the institution. Over 300 staff petitions were reviewed, resulting in promotions and salary adjustments designed to restore confidence and reignite productivity. With limited financial capacity, TOR turned to unconventional revenue strategies to keep the lights on. The refinery extended its operational hours, attracted regional clients — including Burkina Faso — for petroleum storage services, and worked to rebuild confidence among private petroleum service providers. According to Kombat, these measures helped stabilise revenue streams and provided the foundation for initial restoration works. The clearest sign that TOR’s recovery was real came on December 19, 2025, when the refinery resumed refining operations after years of inactivity — a milestone that few had believed possible just months earlier. In a testament to the capability of its workforce, the primary processing unit, known as the Crude Distillation Unit (CDU), was successfully restored by in-house engineers without any external technical support. Work is now ongoing to rehabilitate the secondary processing unit, the Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracker (RFCC), which is expected to further enhance output and product value once operational. The rebuilding effort has extended to critical infrastructure across the refinery. Storage tanks are being rehabilitated, the loading gantry is being modernised, and a recruitment drive is underway to address an ageing workforce. To date, over 400 temporary workers and 300 permanent staff have been engaged as part of the recovery phase. Kombat was emphatic about the strategic importance of TOR to Ghana’s energy security. The refinery holds a unique position in the national petroleum supply chain, it is one of the few facilities capable of producing aviation fuel and premix fuel, and boasts storage capacity estimated at one million metric tonnes, with connections to key national and regional supply routes. Allowing such an asset to fall into irreversible disrepair, he warned, could have serious consequences, especially in an era of heightened geopolitical tensions that continue to disrupt global oil markets. Yet for all the progress made, Kombat was careful not to overstate where TOR stands today. “We are just scratching the surface,” he said, stressing that the refinery’s recovery remains in its early stages and that continuity in both management and policy direction will be essential to consolidating the gains achieved so far. The story of TOR’s revival is still being written, but for the first time in years, it appears to have a fighting chance at a different ending. Source: Apexnewsgh.com
GPRTU Warns of Fare Hikes as Fuel Prices Surge, Government Urged to Act
Transport operators in Ghana are running out of patience, and options. Samuel Amoah, Deputy Industrial and Public Relations Officer of the Ghana Private Road Transport Union (GPRTU), has issued a stern warning to authorities: act now or face the consequences of higher transport fares. Speaking to the media, Amoah acknowledged the government’s position that current economic pressures are beyond its immediate control, but made clear that transport operators cannot afford to absorb the rising costs indefinitely. “What the government and the president is saying is, it is something they can’t control right now, but the transport operators may be forced to,” he stated. The union has already moved beyond words. Amoah revealed that GPRTU issued a formal release giving the government a two-day window to respond with concrete action. “We came up with this release and gave the government two days to do something about it. If they fail to do [that]…then we have no option but to organise ourselves to request an increment of transport fares for our members,” he warned. The ultimatum comes against the backdrop of a sharp jump in fuel prices following new pricing guidelines issued by the National Petroleum Authority (NPA). For the April 1 to April 15 pricing window, the NPA has set minimum ex-pump prices at GHS 13.30 per litre for petrol and GHS 17.10 per litre for diesel. The figures represent a steep climb from the previous pricing window, which ended March 31, when petrol was pegged at GHS 11.57 per litre and diesel at GHS 14.35 per litre, increases of roughly 14.9% and 19.2%, respectively, within a single pricing cycle. The fuel price surge has been largely attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which continue to rattle global oil markets and push crude prices higher. For transport operators already navigating tight margins, the latest price adjustments have pushed the sector to a breaking point. With the government yet to respond to the union’s demands, the clock is ticking. If no relief measures are forthcoming, Ghanaian commuters may soon find themselves digging deeper into their pockets at the bus stop. Source: Apexnewsgh.com