According to market analysis conducted by the Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC), fuel prices at the pump are projected to increase by between 6% and 9% during the second pricing window of July 2025.
This anticipated rise comes as a response to current market indicators and is set to take effect from Wednesday, July 16, 2025.
The mean retail price of petroleum products is expected to rise by an average of 8% from current levels once the new pricing window opens. Specifically, petrol prices are forecasted to increase by 6.47%, moving from an average of GHS11.59 per litre. Diesel, on the other hand, is anticipated to experience the most significant jump, rising by 9.30% from its current mean price of GHS12.97 per litre.
In contrast, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) is projected to see a slight decrease, with prices expected to fall by 0.45% per kilogram, providing a small relief amidst the broader increases.
In a statement released on Tuesday, July 15, COPEC explained that these projections are based on current market indicators. The estimates assume stability in global Free-On-Board (FOB) petroleum prices and the cedi-dollar exchange rate in the near term. This is notable, especially as crude oil prices have recently seen a 4.89% drop, falling from $74.43 to $70.79 per barrel, and the Ghanaian cedi has depreciated by 0.47%, shifting from GHS10.5288 to GHS10.5785 per dollar.
COPEC attributed the expected price hikes primarily to the introduction of a GHS1 Energy Sector shortfall and debt repayment levy, recently implemented by the Ministry of Energy. This new financial measure is seen as a significant driver of the upcoming price increases.
The Chamber also warned that final pump prices could vary within a ±5% margin from the estimates, depending on actual market movements as the pricing window progresses. As consumers brace for these changes, the implications of rising fuel prices on everyday expenses continue to be a pressing concern for many.
Read below the statement by COPEC
CHAMBER OF PETROLEUM CONSUMERS – (COPEC)
ACCRA
14 July 2025
* FUEL PRICES ARE EXPECTED TO GO UP 6%-9% IN THE SECOND PRICING WINDOW OF JULY 2025*
The current mean fuel price is expected to go up by about 8% in the next Pricing Window
Analysis of Projection
Barring any unforeseen major changes in global Petroleum FOB prices and the Dollar: Cedi exchange rates, indications across the downstream petroleum market are that, in the next window beginning 16 July 2025,
- the mean pump retail price of Petrol is expected to go up by 6.47% of the current mean price of GHS11.59/L
ii. The mean price of diesel is also expected to go up by 9.30% of the current mean price of GHS12.97/L and
iii. Mean LPG price per kg is also to go down by about -0.45%.
Acknowledging that, the Crude price has gone down by -4.89% from $74.43/barrel to $70.79/barrel and that the Cedi has slightly depreciated relatively to the Dollar from an average rate of $1:GHS10.5288 to $1:GHS10.5785 (-0.4720%), coupled with the introduction of the Energy Sector shortfall and debt repayment levy of GHS1 by the Ministry of Energy, the following will constitute the projected mean retail prices for Petroleum products to within ±5% of COPEC’s projection starting from 16 July 2025.
Petrol .. GHS12.34/L
Diesel .. GHS14.18/L
The Mean Price for Petrol and Diesel..GHS13.26/L
LPG.. GHS11.55/kg
Thus, a 14.5 kg of LPG cylinder would be expected to be sold at GHS167.43 within the next window.
Below are the detailed descriptions.
- PETROL
Though the international FOB price of petrol has decreased from $740.93/MT to $716.30/MT (-3.32%), the retail price works up to GHS12.34/L
Thus, the retail price of Petrol is expected to increase by 6.47% of the current mean pump retail price of GHS11.59/L, to close selling between GHS11.72/L and GHS12.96 /L , within ±5% range of COPEC’s projected figure of GHS12.34/L.
- DIESEL
In the same manner, with the International FOB price of diesel increasing from $722.48/MT to $743.07/MT (2.85%), the projected mean retail pump price for the next window shall be GHS14.18/L
Diesel is therefore expected to increase in price by about 9.30% of the current mean pump retail price of GHS12.97/L to be selling between GHS13.47/L and GHS14.89/L , within ±5% range of COPEC’s projected figure of GHS14.18/L.
3.0 Mean Price of Petrol and Diesel
The mean price of petrol and diesel for the coming window per available parameters shall be GHS13.26/L . The mean pump price is therefore expected to increase by 7.96% over the current mean price of GHS12.28/L to be be selling between GHS12.60/L and GHS13.92/L, within ±5% of COPEC’s projected mean price of GHS13.26/L.
- LPG
With the international FOB price of LPG decreasing from $492.70/MT to $465.52/MT (-5.41%), the projected retail price of LPG is expected to be on the average at GHS11.55/kg.
Thus, within ±5% error, LPG is expected to be selling between GHS10.97/kg and GHS12.12/ kg.
Remarks:
1. COPEC is very much appreciative of the fairly stable Dollar:Cedi exchange rate, which is being enjoyed in the fuel industry.
* It is anticipated that the Dollar: Cedi exchange rate will continue to improve for the benefit of the general consumers of petroleum products.
- COPEC maintains that, Government must do all it can to reduce taxes on LPG or to subsidize the price of LPG to promote and encourage its nationwide accessibility and usage which will eventually help save the environment from further degradation by the use of firewoods.
- Currently, the total taxes and levies on retail prices of Petrol and Diesel is about 26.55%.
* COPEC is requesting for the reduction of tax rates or to take off some of the fuel taxes to lessen the burden on consumers.
* Alternatively, a formula can be adopted to vary the total levies with change in the Dollar:Cedi rate.
- We further appeal to the government not to relent in getting Tema Oil Refinery (TOR) back on stream in order to avoid or reduce the importation of finished products, with possible associated fuel contamination.
- COPEC wishes to appeal to the OMCs not to unduly increase fuel prices with the introduction of the new e-levy against the interest of consumers in the next window.
Duncan Amoah.
Executive Secretary.
Source: Apexnewsgh.com
