As US President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, Japan and China are making efforts to improve their relations, which have been strained due to Beijing’s aggressive military activities in the Indo-Pacific region.
Despite these efforts, analysts believe that longstanding tensions between the two nations will be difficult to overcome.
According to Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore, “Tokyo does want to have smoother ties with Beijing, given the likely tumultuousness of the US-China relationship and also the global situation more broadly once Trump comes into office.”
However, Chong notes that the basic positions of both countries are too far apart, making it challenging for them to pursue a fundamental reset in bilateral relations.
Recently, Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Beijing. The two sides agreed to facilitate a visit by Wang to Japan in 2025 and improve relations on a basic societal level. Wang emphasized the importance of strengthening people-to-people exchanges and consolidating public support for China-Japan friendship.
However, Iwaya also expressed Japan’s serious concerns about the increased Chinese military activities in areas near Japan and Japanese citizens’ safety in China. Despite these concerns, the two sides agreed to hold a high-level economic dialogue and organize the Japan-China Security Dialogue to improve communication over security issues.
Experts believe that Japan is seeking to extract “some positive goods” from China due to Beijing’s increasing concern about the incoming Trump administration. Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies at Tokyo’s International Christian University, notes that Japan is focusing on securing short-term gains in improving ties rather than resetting the relationship.
One of the main disputes between China and Japan is Tokyo’s discharge of treated radioactive wastewater from the damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant. Beijing has repeatedly opposed Tokyo’s move and imposed bans on the import of Japanese seafood. Despite agreements to allow independent sampling of the treated waters, China’s import ban remains in place.
While Japan seeks to improve ties with China, its relationship with the US remains a priority. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has emphasized the importance of strengthening the US-Japan alliance, and Tokyo is expected to align itself with Washington as much as possible. However, Japan will also try to influence how US-China competition develops under the second Trump administration, conveying that its relationship with China is complex and cannot be simply cut off.
