Sanity Africa, the Pan-African civil society organisation famed for its sharp political forecasting in Ghana, has released the second phase of its survey on the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential primary, offering fresh insights as the party gears up for the January 2026 general elections.
The organisation, which recently predicted Bernard Baidoo’s victory in the closely watched Akwatia by-election, now reports that Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, popularly known as Ken, has expanded his lead among NPP delegates. According to the October abridged report, Ken commands 53.1% of voting intentions—a 1.7 percentage point rise since the Phase One survey in July. Former Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia follows with 39.0%, representing a 3.2-point decline.
Trailing behind are Dr Bryan Acheampong at 5.0% (up 1.9 points), Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum at 2.0% (down 1.0 point), and Ing. Kwabena A. Agyepong at 0.9% (up from 0.3%).
The nationwide survey, conducted between July and October 2025, sampled 15,000 out of an estimated 218,000 delegates across all 276 constituencies, boasting a 99% confidence level and a 5% margin of error.
Regionally, Ken maintains a commanding lead in 10 of Ghana’s 16 regions, including strongholds like Ashanti (54.8%), Central (69.0%), and Eastern (54.8%). Dr Bawumia, meanwhile, holds sway in six regions, particularly in the north, including the North East (70.0%) and Upper West (60.2%). Closely contested races are being observed in Bono East, Savannah, and Upper East, with slim margins separating the frontrunners.
Notable trends include Dr Bawumia increasing his advantage in the North East Region from 51.6% to 70.0%, while Ken has consolidated his position in the Volta (50.8%) and Bono (53.0%) regions. Dr Bryan Acheampong has made significant gains in his home region of Eastern, rising to 21.7%.
Sanity Africa attributes these shifting dynamics to evolving campaign strategies and regional influences, noting that while Ken Agyapong currently leads, the contest remains fluid. The organisation underscores the importance of endorsements, messaging, and campaign tactics, all of which could yet shape the outcome.
With Phase Three of the survey set for release in January 2026, Sanity Africa concludes that Ken may be the man to beat, but in the unpredictable world of party politics, the race is far from over.
Source: Apexnewsgh.com
