Aziz Adam Kobilla

In 2016, the then EC chairperson and the returning officer of the 2016 presidential elections, Madam Charlotte Osei declared the outcome of the polls without four constituencies; Afram Plains North, Upper West Akim, Sawla Tuna Kalba and Tamale Central. These four constituencies have a combined voter population of 220,270.
Madam Charlotte Osei declared the results of the two main parties as follows:

Nana Akufo Addo (NPP)= 5,716,026 (53.85%)
John Mahama (NDC)=4,713,277 ( 44.40%)

This yielded a difference of 1,002,749 ( 9.45%) between the two main contenders.

Madam Charlotte Osei explained that the votes of the four constituencies left out in the declaration is immaterial no matter their outcome to the Presidential polls hence the reason she went ahead to declare the results without them.

The gazetted results ( NPP and NDC) for the 2016 presidential polls were later published as follows:

Nana Akufo Addo (NPP)=5,773,299(53.6%)
John Mahama (NDC)=4,800,737(44.6%)
Difference =972,562.

Fast forward, this year, the EC under a new boss and returning officer, Madam Jean Mensah declared H E President Nana Akufo Addo the winner of the 2020 presidential elections without Techiman South Constituency.
The results declared for the two main contenders are as follows;

Nana Akufo Addo( NPP)=6,730,413 (51.595%)
John Mahama (NDC)=6,214,889(47.366%)

With a difference of 515,524 between the winner and his closest contender.

According to Madam Jean Mensah, Techiman South Constituency has a total voter population of 128,018 and so if all these votes were added to the votes of the second contender it cannot cancel out the excess votes ( 515,524) between the winner and his closest contender.

She further stress that in as much as the percentages will alter if such a situation happens but the winner as she declared would have obtained 50.8% which is beyond the required percentage to triumph in any presidential election as posited by the constitution of the republic of Ghana hence the reason she went ahead with the declaration.

It is important to note that this article sort to address two issues as being advanced by the leadership of the NDC that resulted in the incessant demonstration we are seeing on our streets on daily basis by supporters of the NDC.

Point 1: the NDC argued that why will EC declare the 2020 presidential polls minus the Techiman South Constituency?

This argument appears sensible but in actual sense it is deceptive.

It is important to remind the NDC and ourselves that the 2016 presidential election was declared without FOUR CONSTITUENCIES as established above but it was accepted by all.

Drawing from the above experiences, what the two EC bosses-cum-returning officers sort to educate us is that declaration of results can be done with some outstanding figures provided those figures outstanding cannot significantly alter the declared results.

Mathematically, in the case of 2016 if all the 220,270 votes from the four constituencies that were outstanding were added to the votes of the second contender in this case John Mahama it wouldn’t have been enough to offset the over 1 million votes difference between Nana Akufo Addo and John Mahama.
Moreover, Nana Akufo Addo percentage would have still remained above the over 50% + 1 votes.

Similarly, if all the 128,018 votes from the Techiman South Constituency is added to John Mahama during the just ended 2020 polls it cannot cancel out the 515,524 votes difference between Nana Akufo Addo and John Mahama and Nana Akufo Addo will maintain a percentage higher than 50% +1 votes.

This means waiting or not waiting for the outstanding results from the four constituencies and Techiman South Constituency as in the case of 2016 and 2020 respectively is of no significance to the declared results hence the decision to forgo them to avoid unnecessary delay and further heightened tension in the country.

Just like myself, any Mathematics student understands this phenomenon adequately. If your Mathematics is defective don’t just follow, consult a selfless Mathematician for advice.
This is a science and data issue.

If we are to be guided by some electoral experience. It will suffice to say that the assumption to allocate all results coming from the outstanding constituencies in the case of both 2016 and 2020 to one presidential candidate is untenable and should be discouraged as it is nearly impossible to make such assumption.
It is untenable because these outstanding figure represents the total registered voters in those constituencies and our electoral experience reminds us that:

1. No constituency has ever recorded 100% voter turnout.

2. No constituency has given all its valid votes to just one candidate.

This further supported the decisions taken by the respective returning officers of both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

Point 2: the NDC argued again that why did the EC declare the results with certain figures and gazetted the results with different figures?

Again, this arguement is flawed because the EC did indicate before declaration that there are some figures yet to come from Techiman South Constituency.

We were told this by the EC to bear in mind that the declared results is not final but reliable because the outstanding figures cannot vary the results significant enough to invalidate the declared results.

Dear NDC supporters, your leaders are misleading you into doing the unthinkable don’t listen to them.

Thank you

Aziz Adam Kobilla

Apexnewsgh.com/Ghana/Ngamegbulam Chidozie Stephen

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